Detection of Stage‐Discharge Rating Shifts Using Gaugings: A Recursive Segmentation Procedure Accounting for Observational and Model Uncertainties

The stage-discharge rating curve is subject at many hydrometric stations to sudden changes (shifts) typically caused by morphogenic floods. We propose an original method for estimating shift times using the observations, also known as gaugings. This based on a recursive segmentation procedure that accounts both gaugings and uncertainties through Bayesian framework. It starts with estimation of baseline all available Then it computes residuals between this uncertainties. proceeds time series multi-change point accounting Once first set identified, same recursively applied each sub-period “top-down” approach searching effective shifts. proposed illustrated Ardèche River Meyras in France (a typical site river bed degradation) evaluated several synthetic data sets which true are known. applications confirm added value compared “single-pass” highlight importance properly segmented data. effectively disentangles from observational